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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wha...20-part-2/
Some interesting analysis there I thought. (I know many here don't credit 538 with anything sensible but I find the site to be interesting.)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...ion_polls/
Biden, who is not declared, has a pretty significant lead over Sanders. That rumor about a Biden/Abrams ticket was interesting even if dispelled. He might well go with Harris or Booker, if he prevails. I'm far from convinced he wins.
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That Starbucks dude, Schultz, should run as a Dem. Honestly, outside of Biden he would likely have the best chance against Trump. Â
I'm really trying to push "normal" Dem candidates just in case they win. Man, I never saw a day where I would ever do that---as I thought old school Dems were too extreme left. Now I have to push for them, otherwise who knows where we'd end up with this socialist clown show.
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(04-09-2019, 08:42 AM)ScarletHayes Wrote: That Starbucks dude, Schultz, should run as a Dem. Honestly, outside of Biden he would likely have the best chance against Trump. Â
His problem is he has zero chance to get the nomination.  I still say a black or maybe Hispanic will be the nominee. Although it is possible, how do you run a credible campaign making the white man the devil who is responsible for everyone's problems with a white candidate?
"Hightop can reduce an entire message board of men to mudsharks. It's actually pretty funny to watch."
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Schultz has some decent ideas. I'd like to know more if possible.
Make America Honest Again
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I think Biden does win the nomination. For all the noise of Kamala and Corey, they are lightweights and don't have the push behind them.....
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(04-09-2019, 09:22 AM)Alabuckeye Wrote: I think Biden does win the nomination. Â For all the noise of Kamala and Corey, they are lightweights and don't have the push behind them.....
That won't work with the up and coming young socialists, especially the non-whites. The media knows how to cover up for light weights. They got one elected twice, in 2008 and 2012.
"Hightop can reduce an entire message board of men to mudsharks. It's actually pretty funny to watch."
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Sticking with my Kamala Harris prediction. But barring a big downturn in the economy, Trump is the heavy favorite over any of the Dems. The Mueller report was his "Bin Laden killing."
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(04-09-2019, 10:34 AM)Beastdog Wrote: Sticking with my Kamala Harris prediction. But barring a big downturn in the economy, Trump is the heavy favorite over any of the Dems. The Mueller report was his "Bin Laden killing."
Most likely Harris.
Some chance of Sanders, Buttigieg, or Beto.
Unlikely Castro, Gillebrand, Klobuchar, etc., but one could emerge.
No chance of creepy Joe Biden.
Or the MAGAlamaniac. I will say it again. He can't crack 50% approval in a booming economy. He's toast now, and worse than toast if we see a downturn. Name me one president who was reelected with consistent country's on the wrong track polling.
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...y-902.html
The country has been on "the wrong track" in polling for a long long time, so the last President to be reelected with a negative there would be Obama. He also was the last President to be reelected.
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(04-09-2019, 11:11 AM)JamesWright Wrote: (04-09-2019, 10:34 AM)Beastdog Wrote: Sticking with my Kamala Harris prediction. But barring a big downturn in the economy, Trump is the heavy favorite over any of the Dems. The Mueller report was his "Bin Laden killing."
Most likely Harris.
Some chance of Sanders, Buttigieg, or Beto.
Unlikely Castro, Gillebrand, Klobuchar, etc., but one could emerge.
No chance of creepy Joe Biden.
Or the MAGAlamaniac. I will say it again. He can't crack 50% approval in a booming economy. He's toast now, and worse than toast if we see a downturn. Name me one president who was reelected with consistent country's on the wrong track polling.
I wouldn't be shocked if Clinton's 1995 numbers were similar to Trump's.
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http://www.pollingreport.com/right.htm
Let's go back further and we find the previous President to be reelected also had negatives on "wrong track" polling.
Obama's numbers were the same as Trump's when he was reelected.
So, that specific metric would appear to be not very useful.
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(04-09-2019, 09:06 AM)zigbee Wrote: Schultz has some decent ideas. I'd like to know more if possible.
Basically, he's not economically insane. Standard D line on guns, climate,diversity etc but understands what businesses need to expand and thrive.
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Some of these candidates if held to account for specifics on their policies would lose quite a bit of support, but that doesn't happen in US politics very often. Try and find some reasonably specific outline of Bernie's tax policies out there, I couldn't find anything.
Climate change? OK, what do you propose specifically? Guns? OK, what specifically. Spending? Lay it out.
The best candidates get away with being vague and burfle producers.
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Alec Baldwin. Says he could beat Trump "easily".
DANGEROUS WHEN PROVOKED
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I could beat Trump "easily". I'm certain of it.
Who cares? No one.
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The Democratic Nominee will be ...
