2021 REDS thread

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While it came a bit later than many other teams, the Cincinnati Reds officially announced their Opening Day 26-man roster. There arenâ€t many surprises on it. We knew that Shogo Akiyama, Sonny Gray, and Michael Lorenzen would all begin the year on the injured list. And while not official, we learned yesterday what the pitching staff would look like and that it would feature five starting pitchers and eight relievers.

What weâ€ve been waiting on when it comes to the roster is the status of Joey Votto. The Reds first baseman returned to spring training late after missing time after contracting COVID-19. He wanted to not only be sure he was ready to play physically, but that he was ready from a preparedness standpoint. The status of Votto meant two things: First would be that the team would need to make a 40-man roster move if he were active, and second, if he werenâ€t active that may change who makes the team as a bench player because having some first base experience could be a factor.

Well, Joey Votto is ready to go. And here is your Cincinnati Reds Opening Day 26-man roster:

Rotation                                Infielders
Luis Castillo                            Alex Blandino
Tyler Mahle                            Kyle Farmer
Jeff Hoffman                          Jonathan India
Josà De León                          Mike Moustakas
Wade Miley                            Joey Votto
                                            Eugenio Suárez

Bullpen                                 
Tejay Antone                          Outfielders
Cam Bedrosian                       Aristides Aquino
Sean Doolittle                         Nick Castellanos
Carson Fulmer                        Tyler Naquin
Amir Garrett                            Nick Senzel
Cionel PÃrez                            Jesse Winker
Sal Romano                            
Lucas Sims
                                              Injured List
                                               Shogo Akiyama
                                                  Sonny Gray

Catchers
Tucker Barnhart Michael Lorenzen
Tyler Stephenson Brandon Bailey (60-day)

Max Schrock and Mark Payton were both optioned to the Reds alternate site.


To make room on the 40-man roster with Joey Votto coming off of the injured list, Cincinnati designated pitcher Edgar García for assignment. Shogo Akiyama, Sonny Gray, and Michael Lorenzen were all placed on the 10-day injured list.

[davebucknut]

I think we'll finish 3rd in the division, but you never know if we'll get some surprise contributions somewhere or is a guy like lorenzen becomes a stud.

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When Cincinnati Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos signed a four-year contract in January 2020, the Reds knew they had added a big-name hitter in hopes of bolstering a weak offense. The Reds watched Castellanos dominate with the Cubs down the stretch in 2019. Signing him felt like a no-brainer, which is why it was probably so disappointing to see him struggle for most of the 2020 season. However, itâ€s not as simple to just say “Castellanos struggled at the plate.” It goes deeper than that, and the deeper the dive into his stats, the bigger the realization that multiple factors played a part in his disappointing season last year.

In 2020, Castellanos batted .225/.298/.486 with a .784 OPS. He hit 14 home runs and drove in 34 baserunners in 60 games. After starting the season strong, posting a 1.214 OPS with nine hits, including two home runs, in just 24 at-bats in July, August was a little worse. He had just a .840 OPS with 23 hits in 102 at-bats. Then came the major slide in September, when he posted a .604 OPS for the month. Despite this, he still managed to finish the season with a 102 wRC+, good for around league average.

However, contrast that with what he did in 2019 when he was with the Tigers and the Cubs. In 100 games with Detroit, he had a respectable .790 OPS. Once he got to Chicago and joined a playoff race, his bat exploded, hitting .321/.356/.646 with a 1.002 OPS. Castellanos finished 2019 with 27 home runs, a whopping 58 doubles and 73 RBI. His wRC+ was 121, which still wasnâ€t as high as the previous year when it was 129.

Barreling the Baseball
At age 29, Castellanos is still considered to be in the “prime” of his career. His offensive power in 2020 proves it. According to Baseball Savant, he was in the upper echelon of the league in hard hit %, exit velocity, and barrel %. He finished in the 82nd and 83rd percentile for exit velocity and hard hit %, respectively. His hard hit % went up 5.2% from 2019. Considering he hit 58 doubles that year, itâ€s pretty impressive his power increased.




His xSLG and barrel % were in the 92nd and 95th percentile, among the top five percent of hitters in all of MLB. And his 16 percent barrel % was the highest of his career and the highest since 2016. This was also up 5.1 percent from a year ago.  What does all this mean? Well, it means that when Castellanos made solid contact (24 barrels in 150 batted balls), he crushed baseballs.

(Now, I know these are small sample sizes given the shortened season last year, but 60 games is about equivalent to playing from the beginning of April through Memorial Day. All Star selections are based on this length of time).

Missing Pitches and Sheer Unluckiness
Unfortunately, Castellanos†power and contact didnâ€t translate to the basic stats. There are two reasons for this. First, his BABIP was only .257, the lowest of his career and the lowest since his rookie season in 2013. Castellanos usually stays consistent with his BABIP above .300 throughout the course of his seven year career. He just hit balls right at players in an unlucky way last year.

Second, although Castellanos is a great power hitter and can barrel a ball well, he also missed a lot of pitches, mostly on the inside of the plate. His Whiff % was at 34.2%, up from 26.9% a year ago and the highest of his career. This led to a K% of 28.5%, a seven percent jump from 2019.

Taking a look at his swing% profile, it shows that he swings at balls over the inner half of the plate way more often than the average batter. This can get him into trouble and itâ€s likely a contributing factor to the 69 strikeouts in 218 at-bats in 2020.

Mental Health
2020 was a hard year for everyone, and MLB players were not exempt from that. Last month, Castellanos did an interview with MLB Network talking about his mental state. He said he felt the protocols and the restrictions, although necessary, wore on him to the point that he didnâ€t feel in control of his day or his pregame routine. Baseball players are known for their routines. Sometimes we forget that these players are human too. Humans are creatures of habit. When someone is forced to change a habit or a long-standing routine, it can cause a person to lose focus.

Between the poor mental heath and the bad luck, itâ€s easy to see why Castellanos struggled last year, particularly in September. It couldnâ€t have been easy to play without the normal routine, empty ballparks, and likely no family with him. After a while, it probably got tiring and it started to affect his play.

2021 is a new year, however. Vaccines are here, fans are back at the ballpark, and now that the players know what to expect, there can be some semblance of normalcy. It should help the mental health aspect. As for the unluckiness, itâ€s almost impossible for a player to hit the ball that hard and not see success two seasons in a row, right?

If Castellanos can continue barreling the ball at the rate of the top five percent of the players in the league, he should have a better year than last year. He had a great spring training. In 48 plate appearances, he hit .333/.354/.622 with a .976 OPS. He collected 15 hits, including two doubles, one triple and three home runs. I canâ€t wait to see if he can continue it as the 2021 season starts.

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Jonathan India has officially made the Cincinnati Reds Opening Day roster. While the entire roster is not out yet – weâ€ll post it once it is available, though itâ€s not expected until Thursday as the team is waiting on a decision about Joey Votto and whether or not heâ€s ready to begin the season on the active roster (first reported by C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic) – we have learned much of the roster through various reports. For Jonathan India, we learned it unofficially when Eugenio Suárez spoke about him earlier this afternoon with the media, saying “thatâ€s why he made the team” at one point. The team officially announced the move just before 2pm ET.

“Itâ€s a crazy feeling,” said India of making the team. “Itâ€s something Iâ€ve dreamed about since I was 4-years-old playing this game. To be in this position right now still hasnâ€t hit me. It wonâ€t really hit me until tomorrow when weâ€re under the lights and playing. Itâ€s a blessing. Iâ€m not going to let this opportunity slip. Iâ€m going to be here for a while.”

For anyone who paid attention during spring training, this isnâ€t a surprise. While heading into camp, Jonathan India wasnâ€t in the position to make the roster, once the team decided to try and go with Eugenio Suárez at shortstop, sliding Mike Moustakas to third, it opened up second base. Nearly every day moving forward from that point it was India starting at second base. The team had a clear plan at that point to get both India and Suárez time up the middle together.

“Weâ€re pretty comfortable together,” India said of he and Eugenio Suárez. “Weâ€re both athletes, so we mesh pretty well. We both played third, weâ€re both smart infielders as well. We know how to communicate – weâ€re pretty solid up the middle for now.”

March went well for Jonathan India at the plate, too. He wound up getting into 22 games in spring training and racked up 59 plate appearances, hitting .313/.441/.604 with five doubles, three homers, two steals, seven walks, and he struck out 12 times. He was also hit by four pitches.




For Jonathan India, he credits his time at the alternate site last year as a big piece of his development and getting him ready to take the steps he has and be ready to play in the big leagues this year.

“I was definitely more comfortable this spring playing out there,” India said. “The alternate site helped me a lot, preparing myself, my body, my mental state. It gave me a different look at the game being in that position. I worked on a lot of things there and you can ask the people that were there that I grinded really hard there and I think it made me more prepared for this, mentally, and at the plate and in the field. I just felt very comfortable. The alternate site played a huge role in that and making me more comfortable this year.”

Kudos to the Cincinnati Reds for not playing games with service time here. The team has said this spring that they would pick the 26 best players to go with, not worrying about options and or service time. It seems like they are sticking with that. The team could have “gotten an extra year” down the line of control by keeping Jonathan India in the minors/alternate site for two weeks and then calling him up. They didnâ€t do that. And with how the division projects, those two weeks could be very important as the race seems to be 1-4 games different between many of the projection systems spots in the NL Central between 1st and 4th place.

[davebucknut]

India could be a huge boost if he plays well, because offensively we haven't had great success with our middle infield in a few years and this duo could be great, I'm only worried about Suarez defensively, but as long as he makes all of the regular plays, we should be all right

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India could be a huge boost if he plays well, because offensively we haven't had great success with our middle infield in a few years and this duo could be great, I'm only worried about Suarez defensively, but as long as he makes all of the regular plays, we should be all right

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I think Suarez does great.   He dropped 15 Lbs and will pick this back up fine.

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Goldschmidt with BLAST in first off of Castillo......1-0...but it's being reviewed.

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REVERSED....double for Goldschmidt.

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Arenado advances Goldschmidt to third and Dejong squibs one through IF for score.   Castillo throwing LOT of pitches early and hits next batter...sacks juiced with one out.

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Suarez BOOTS ground ball which would have been DP...2 more in.   3-0 NOW....2 on and Dylan Carlson with a BLAST....6-0 now.   INCREDIBLE.   Reds going to get their ass kicked today

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Winker lead off double, advances with Castellanos deep fly out to RF to 3rd base, and SCORES on WP...6-1 Cards.

[ScarletHayes]

Sheeeeebus.  What a start.  Good grief.  

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Suarez with second error....Goldschmidt to second on bad throw and Votto missing scoop.   Arenado with up middle hit.   7-1 Cards as Castillo wonders what the hell is wrong with Suarez at SS????????????

[davebucknut]

Not good, down 7-1... sheesh

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Oh, well.  I just threw my radio in the trash.  Damn thing quit working....go figure.   I'll never buy a battery operated one again.  I love listening to redsradio...

Oh, well....got 161 games left.