The stock market and economy

[cincydawg]

A lot of mixed signalsL

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/philly-f...e-cut.html

[BoyGenius]

CNBC... smh

[cincydawg]

I find them as useful as any public site for basic news. The stuff I get from Schwab often is more detailed, but rarely really very useful to me.

The economy, to me, looks like a real mixed bag. The recent drop in interest rates is perhaps a "sign", perhaps not. All this anticipation of a Fed move has me worried, the market seems to gyrate based on speculation about that and trade talks. Earnings is almost an afterthought. The CSX head guy said rail shipments were dropping off.

Maybe we stuck in a flat spot in the economy and maybe we'll hit a rough patch this fall. And maybe the economy is fine. Tea leaves.

[3rdgensooner]

The thing I like is nothing seems over heated. No bubbles I can see except maybe condo construction. Downturns seem to occur when bubbles burst. This has the feel of minor fluctuations for the near future. 
I think weâ€re in for some real stagnation like Japan. The millennials are going to kill economic growth. Ironically immigration may help stave that off.

[cincydawg]

Yeah, perhaps so. The thing about selling a stock if where you put your money. Another stock? OK. If the markets go south, few stocks will hold up anyway, some go down less than others. You can get roughly 2% with bonds unless you want to dip into junk. MLPs play a decent dividend but not without risk. REITs? Not a fan generally.

I think a lot of the support for high PEs now is simply lack of a suitable alternative investment. If CDs were paying say 4-5%, I think folks would often opt for that, versus some stock paying a 3% dividend. I'm talking about retired folks mainly, and insurance companies etc.

Of course, getting 5% off some CD when inflation is 5% is a negative AT return anyway. The construction activity around me is scary, mostly apartments and office buildings, often combos. There are big cranes everywhere. That seems to happen near a top often as not, but of course maybe this will play out OK.

[somenole]

I wonder if it will play out like this author wants it to? No trade deal, more tariffs, Fed easing, followed by other central banks easing, American companies step up, and then Wall Street rejoices.

But there are concerns:

“The question is: When will the White House understand that the trade deal it wants with China is a mirage?”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/22/opinion-...asing.html

[Alabuckeye]

I wonder if it will play out like this author wants it to?  No trade deal, more tariffs, Fed easing, followed by other central banks easing, American companies step up, and then Wall Street rejoices.

But there are concerns:

“The question is: When will the White House understand that the trade deal it wants with China is a mirage?”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/22/opinion-...asing.html

It must be difficult and discouraging looking for down news all the time.

Oh well.....here's some advice.  Trump will not be president forever.  He's not affecting your life nearly as much as you might think.  I tried to tell people this during the BO years as well.

[somenole]

You didnâ€t understand the article. Itâ€s not anti trump. Itâ€s anti China. The author sees a way out of the unfair trade stance that China has.

[Alabuckeye]

You didnâ€t understand the article. Itâ€s not anti trump. Itâ€s anti China. The author sees a way out of the unfair trade stance that China has.

I wasn't addressing the article.....but, for discussion purposes, I will read that and address that as well....

[somenole]

Well, then the post wasnâ€t a shot at trump. The linked article lays out a path, without concessions from China, where the US economy and Wall Street can benefit. My feeling is that China will not give up anything of consequence in trade negotiations. They donâ€t think they have to.

So, if you want to slam me, go ahead. If you want to discuss the article and what the author says, I guess we could do that.

[Alabuckeye]

Well, then the post wasnâ€t a shot at trump. The linked article lays out a path, without concessions from China, where the US economy and Wall Street can benefit. My feeling is that China will not give up anything of consequence in trade negotiations. They donâ€t think they have to.

So, if you want to slam me, go ahead. If you want to discuss the article and what the author says, I guess we could do that.

my work computer has a hate/hate relationship with cnbc.......cnbc wants me to turn off ad blocker to read the article, my machine says 'no'.  

This usually happens about 30 seconds into reading the article.  That 30 seconds got me the gist that the US and China were negotiating essentially on two different levels.  Communicating and understanding at those two levels.  The point came to where we understood one thing and the Chinese another and here we are.....I'll do my best tonight to read the conclusion of the author on how that gap can be bridged.

[cincydawg]

Maybe this is a buy signal:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/22/elizabet...oming.html

"“Warning lights are flashing. Whether itâ€s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high — and growing,” Warren wrote in a post on the blogging platform Medium."

Of course, warning lights are ALWAYS flashing. The odds of another downturn are high, someday, perhaps in ten years or so.

[somenole]

Sheâ€s never shown herself to be a market savant. Who would think she has credibility, in this regard, now?

[Alabuckeye]

That's a great question.....who DOES think that Warren has credibility?

[zigbee]

E Warren WANTS economic collapse so Trump is blamed and she is elected to SAVE the day.