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Quote of the day: Your life doesn't get better by chance. It gets better by change. (April 03, 2020)


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The stock market and economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/jobs-rep...-2019.html

September unemployment rate falls to 3.5%, a 50-year low, as payrolls rise by 136,000

Better that expected obviously, and the futures have gone from some down to some up.  

Trade gap widens more than expected to $54.9 billion
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/us-produ...-2019.html

  • U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in September, weighed down by decreases in the costs of goods and services.

  • The data could give the Fed room to cut interest rates again this month to limit the drag on the economy from trade tensions and slowing growth overseas.


  • The producer price index for final demand dropped 0.3% last month, the largest decline since January, after edging up 0.1% in August, the Labor Department said.
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It's interesting to me how an upgrade (or down) can have such an impact on a stock price, even a very large cap stock.  Some relatively unknown entity issues an upgrade and the stock will jump 3-4-5% at the open.  Do enough folks pay that much attention to analyst upgrades?  Is it baked into the algorithms somehow?  Is it mostly small traders who understand that an upgrade will boost the price and they are trying to get in on the action?

The other "interesting" item to note is that the "analysts" consensus is almost always positive, e.g., if 30 analysts have reccos, 10 will be strong buy and 10 will be buy and the rest will be hold and only 1-3 will be sell/underperform.  At least the Value Line forced a distribution with as many on one side as the other.  I guess "analysts" are a positive group.

I used to listen in on the analyst calls when I was at work for that company when the CEO and CFO would review the results.  It was pretty boring, I guess by design.  I'm not sure anyone ever learns anything from them of any real import.  Maybe there is code they use that I miss.  I know when a CFO says "sales in Sloboviz were a bit soft and influenced by currency exchange issues" it means sales probably were way down, but, it's Slobovia.  Who cares?
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/oil-pric...ecast.html

OPEC trimmed its forecast for oil demand growth for the third month in a row on Thursday, citing weaker-than-expected data in the Asia Pacific region as well as advanced economies in the Americas.
The move is likely to add to growing pressure on the Middle East-dominated group to impose a deeper round of production cuts at its December meeting.

In a closely-watched monthly report, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for the remainder of this year to 0.98 million barrels per day (b/d). Thatâ€s down 40,000 b/d from its September estimate.
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The Repo Market Incident May Be The Tip Of The Iceberg... https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/78348-t...ntributors

SUMMARY: QE is back even though the FED says otherwise.

The Federal Reserve has injected $278 billion into the securities repurchase market for the first time. Numerous justifications have been provided to explain why this has happened and, more importantly, why it lasted for various days.

... the ongoing -and likely to return- burst in the repo market is telling us that risk and debt accumulation are much higher than estimated. Central banks believed they could create a Tsunami of liquidity and manage the waves. However, like those childrenâ€s toys where you press one block and another one rises, the repo market is showing us a symptom of debt saturation and massive risk accumulation.

... what the repo issue is telling us is that the Fed cannot make magic. The central planners believed the Fed could create just the right inflation, manage the curve while remaining behind it, provide enough liquidity but not too much while nudging investors to longer-term securities. Basically,  the repo crisis -because it is a crisis- is telling us that liquidity providers are aware that the price of money, the assets used as collateral and the borrowers†ability to repay are all artificially manipulated.

It is very likely that the Fed injections become a norm


That was Tuesday, Oct 8 and today... FED announced $60 billion/month in repos https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articl...epo-market
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