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We've had 2 incidents now.
It would appear that the mining incident involving 2 freighters is the more 'planned' operation and likely had official clearance.
It would appear that the 'drone shooting' incident COULD have been a mistake.
Does the attention benefit them? Depends. Kim routinely worked the attention in the past for financial relief of some kind. Bribery or the parent saying "if you are good I'll give you a toy" mentality.
I have no clue what Iran is aiming for.
Could just be a play for status......
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There were incidents last week involving attacks on freighters also.
Iran is risking a lot for a very very uncertain reward.
But if they can nudge oil prices higher with threats of more, they benefit.
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what's interesting about this is that they have 'less' power to impact prices..... OPEC's control seems to be at an all time low, SA is not going to back them and would likely increase production just to spite them, and the US is a net exporter.
it's hard to break long standing patterns of thinking though.
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It's not a matter of production if shipments can be threatened. I THINK Iran is trying to goose prices by carrying out some attacks that can be claimed not to be theirs. Shooting down the drone was a separate risk unless said drone was interfering with their capacity to attach mines to ships, or to mine waters, or whatever they wanted to do.
Whether Iran could stimulate a longer term increase in price is much less clear. This is now four tankers attacked by someone.
Sewing uncertainty in supply will spook pricing obviously.
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I see what you are saying.....that makes sense.
Venezuela being just a disaster means that there is one less area that can make up for a supply disruption.
One would think the attack of 4 commercial vessels in May, near Fujairah emirate, one of the world†s largest bunkering hubs just outside the Strait of Hormuz... would produce a bump in the price of oil. WTIC will close below its May 14th price.
The [May] incident comes after months of increasing diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran. The UAE identified the vessels:
1. two crude oil tankers owned by Saudi shipping firm Bahri
2. one UAE-flagged fuel bunker barge
3. one Norwegian-registered oil products tanker
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi...SKCN1SJ088
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An interesting 60k foot look at the Iranian economy and what factors are in play. Nothing specific to this discussion, just background
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview
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Are you asserting that Iran's motivations for these attacks are unrelated to the price of oil?
Why do you think Iran is attacking these tankers?
(06-21-2019, 03:21 PM)Alabuckeye Wrote: An interesting 60k foot look at the Iranian economy and what factors are in play. Nothing specific to this discussion, just background
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview
On November 5, 2018, the [US] fully re-imposed the sanctions on Iran that had been lifted or waived under the JCPOA/... target critical sectors of Iran†s economy, such as the energy, shipping and shipbuilding, and financial sectors. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center.../iran.aspx
From the link above... in the medium term, [Iran's] oil exports are expected to fall to half of their 2017/18 levels following the phased reintroduction of US sanctions culminating in November 2018.
If Iran is actually attempting to manipulate the long term price of oil by attacking tankers, they have failed thus far.
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So, why would Iran be attacking these tankers?
(06-21-2019, 03:21 PM)cincydawg Wrote: Are you asserting that Iran's motivations for these attacks are unrelated to the price of oil?
Why do you think Iran is attacking these tankers?
Iran's strategy to increase the price of oil is to threaten the interests of the US, our allies and the rest of the world? Iran hopes a few damaged tankers will reduce supply enough to push oil above $100 or whatever price Iran has targeted?
That is simply illogical, even absurd. I have stated... they're upset sanctions were reimposed.
You have yet to provide a link that supports your assertion this is Iran's strategy to increase the price of oil... long term.
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Dan Crenshaw has a good perspective on the matter:
[/url]
![[Image: GF8q1URJ_x96.jpg]](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1047938321186480128/GF8q1URJ_x96.jpg)
Dan Crenshaw
@DanCrenshawTX
[url=https://twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX]
·
22m
My take on the Iran situation:
(1/3) Intentional or not, the US is in a stronger position than before, having simultaneously shown a willingness to strike and a willingness to show restraint. All while avoiding an escalation.
Not perfectly executed but an acceptable result.
(2/3) The Iranians are now in a weaker position than before, with less credibility. Ball is in their court, and we are far more justified in taking serious action if they strike again.
(3/3) Lots of ways to analyze these events, & I hope Congress does so objectively & with the following in mind:
1. Iran is not the victim. They caused this.
2. Our President has the countryâ€s best interest in mind.
3. Military strikes are last resort but never off the table.
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On another note, thank GOD we're in NATO! Our allies are really going all-out to support us.
I'm joking, of course.
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So, Iran attacks oil tankers just because they are upset about sanctions imposed months ago.
They got angry ... And do they this is likely to gain them sanctions relief?
Do they think the US will be more likely to relax sanctions because of these actions?
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So, at least two possible reasons for these attacks:
1. Bump the price of oil by creating uncertainty about supply, increasing costs of transport, etc.
OR
2. Iran was unhappy about US sanctions and decided to attack non-US tankers carrying non-US oil, and our drone, so that they could .... reduce sanctions?
Iran may have figured it could get away with this for a longer period of time, damaging tankers with limpet mines, or whatever other tactics they might employ, and it's obvious the price of oil has risen because of these attacks. I'd imagine insurance rates increases, tanker owners may be less likely to sail into the Gulf, countries there are on edge ... particularly if Iran could not be assigned blame.
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